Paper details: Hi. Please help me write a Bayesian Decision Analysis report of this case study. Please see the attached files Case Study Page 1 and 2 for the content. Also, please see the Case Study Excel File attached for all the calculations I have done. The writing must be in US writing style. Please write this assignment in a form of report, no need to specify which part answers question 1, question 2, … etc. but must conclude answers for the following 6 questions. Every answer must be from an original ideas and recommendations. Please do not use other sources than the Case Study File. Because of that no need for citations. If really needed, can use a very few of other sources, but I will have to consider again whether it’s absolutely necessary. Please also don’t forget to insert Excel models from “Case Study Excel File” to the writing. Thank you.
In this report I must answer these 6 questions.
1. Using the information in the first paragraph under “Pansare’s Decision”, create a decision tree to evaluate Pansare’s options. This will serve as your “Baseline” decision tree.
2. The decision tree created above is based on Pansare’s 50/50 estimate of unseasonable rain. Up to what amount of money should he be willing to spend to obtain a more accurate estimate?
3. Create a new decision tree that incorporates Pansare’s information regarding the climatology firm’s accuracy.
4. Comparing these two decision trees, now how much do you think Pansare should be willing to spend on a more accurate unseasonable rain estimate?
5. What possible issues could you see Pansare encountering as he tries to persuade his family members whether to purchase the climatology firm’s estimate?
6. If there are any other analyses or recommendations you would like to add, feel free to incorporate it in your memo.
The case write-up will be graded based on:
• Decision tree(s) accuracy: The analysis is the most important part of this assignment. The executive management is looking to you for an accurate formulation.
• Interpretation and explanation of results: You are tasked with not only coming up with an answer, but also explaining what that means. The goal is to use math to make more informed decisions. However, you’ll often find that your audience will not have a management science background, so it’s important that you explain your findings in a simple, easy to understand manner.
Report Structure I have in mind. This is just to give some idea of what I expect the report to be like. (If needed, please adjust as you see fit)
All 1650 Words.
Introduction (190 Words) Explain the overall brief situation of what is going on in the case study.
Question 1 (225 Words) : Please insert Excel table from “Question 1” Worksheet. And please explain the situation from “Question 1” TreePlan. (Please don’t forget to explain with simplicity for audience with no management science background according to the Grading Policy) The answer for this question I think it is to maintain the orchard because it values $10,000 which is more than leasing the orchard.
Question 2 (225 Words) : Please insert Excel table from “Question 2” Worksheet. And please explain the situation from “Question 2” TreePlan. I think the answer is spend up to $7,000 because that is the possible gain when compared to the table from Question 1.
Question 3&4 (425 Words) : Please insert the tables from “Posterior Probabilities” and “Question 3”. Explain the meaning of these tables. And interpret each decision and result. My answers: We should use the climatology as it values more than not use. If climatology is unfavorable we should maintain the orchard since it values more. If climatology is favorable we should lease the orchard. Pansare should be spending up to $1,300 for more accurate unreasonable rain estimate? If I’m correct. These are just simple ways to answer. Please explain these in more details with numbers.
Question 5 & 6 (525 Words) : These are the parts that I really need your help with. These answers are all best on original ideas and suggestions. Please explain these parts in details. Especially question 6 is where we get to use creativity to gain better scores.
Conclusion (60 Wordaqws) : Just a brief conclusion.
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